Rise of the Ronin aims high with 5 million plus sales target
Rise of the Ronin is the upcoming open world action RPG that throws your right into the middle of one of Japan’s most turbulent periods of history. Combining Koei Tecmo (Dynasty Warriors, Nobunaga’s Ambition) and Team Ninja (Ninja Gaiden, Nioh)’s experience with historical settings and dynamic combat, Rise of the Ronin lets you play as a masterless samurai, giving you the freedom to carve your own path and choose your alliances. Scheduled to be released for PS5 on March 22, Koei Tecmo is apparently anticipating over 5 million sales for their epic, large-scale game.
According to Koei Tecmo’s corporate website, one of their key goals is to sell 5 million units of a new IP, which was later confirmed to be Rise of the Ronin. In an interview with Famitsu back in May 2023, Koei Tecmo’s COO Hisashi Koinuma reiterated that the company’s mid-term management strategy was to release titles that could meet the 5-million-unit benchmark. He went on to explain that the Nioh series sold 7 million units worldwide, with the company utilizing their past experience to come up with game development strategies that will allow them to aim for higher sales goals. Koinuma added that “Ultimately, our goal is to create a title in the 10-million-unit class”. It seems that Rise of the Ronin’s 5-million sales goal is one of the stepping stones towards even bigger Koei Tecmo games in the future.
Similar sentiments were expressed in our recent report on an interview with Rise of the Ronin’s developers. The game’s producer Yosuke Hayashi explained that “Many of our staff have poured their hearts and souls into Rise of the Ronin, with the desire to create a truly knockout game.” Taking inspiration from Ghost of Tsushima’s global success, it seems that Koei Tecmo and Team Ninja are determined to deliver an engrossing game set in historical Japan that is also Japanese made (unlike Sony Studios’ Ghost of Tsushima).
The game’s upcoming release seems to have caused the following X post from Bloomberg’s Takashi Mochizuki to resurface on Japanese message boards:
As Rise of the Ronin is a PS5 exclusive, it will no doubt be able to leverage the power of the console in terms of the detail and scale of its open world. However, Japanese netizens commenting on the above tweet via Mutyun and Gamerpress expressed concern over whether the sales goal was realistic, considering the relatively low ownership levels for PS5 in Japan compared to previous generation consoles, as well as the timing of the release. Others were more positive, but most Japanese commenters seemed to think that Rise of the Ronin would need sequels or a PC release to exceed 5 million units sold.
It is possible that these commenters are underestimating the global market, as well as the number of Ghost of Tsushima fans who want to play more games set in historical Japan. It remains to be seen if Koei Tecmo can pull off their sales goal with Rise of the Ronin.
Rise of the Ronin is scheduled to be released for PS5 on March 22.
Verity Townsend
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Companies need to be very careful about sales projections and realize we are hitting a point where they can not hit higher than 5-10 million max on a single console release unless it’s a famous IP, or it becomes very good on it’s own merit that they can reach something that high over the span of time where it builds into it. I will say though if Rise Of The Ronin was was PC/Console/Gamepass, absolutely it could hit 5 million sells easily and potentially 10 million over lifetime. Day 1 helps push it even further. But i will always caution that it’s not always a given it will do that well or even 10 million unless it really resonates.