In its financial report for the fiscal year ended March 2025, Nintendo revealed that it expects the Switch 2 to ship 15 million units worldwide by the end of March 2026, with software sales for the same period estimated at around 45 million. The projected figures are close to those of the original Switch, which sold almost 18 million units in its first 13 months.
Given the unprecedented popularity of the new system, many believe Nintendo is consciously low-balling its sales forecast for the Switch 2 to factor in tariffs and other uncertainties. In a shareholder Q&A published on May 9, Nintendo gave a more in-depth explanation of the forecast, with CEO Shuntaro Furukawa emphasizing that is it not based on the company’s limitations in terms of production capacity nor tariffs.
“We’ve set projected sales for the Nintendo Switch 2 in the ongoing fiscal year at 15 million units. This figure is based on a target comparable to sales of the original Nintendo Switch during the 10-month period from its launch in March 2017 to the end of December the same year.” However, Furukawa adds, “this sales projection was not determined based on limitations in our production capacity. The situation with US tariffs and concerns about economic downturn have also not affected our forecast. In order to achieve the target of 15 million, we will need to manufacture even more units than that.”
On the other hand, Nintendo identifies the Switch 2’s price as a challenge – “Since the Switch 2 is priced higher than the original Switch, we recognize that there will be considerable hurdles in achieving the console’s widespread adoption in the early stages.” The company believes that the new system’s backward compatibility and sales of software bundles will help in overcoming this, but the price tag seems to remain the main cause for Nintendo’s cautious approach.
Nintendo is fully aware of the Switch 2’s strong performance both in terms of feedback and pre-orders, but Furukawa doesn’t want to take this initial momentum for granted – according to the CEO, the real challenge will be sustaining the new console’s momentum despite its higher pricing – especially keeping sales steady into the year-end holiday season and beyond.
As for production capacity, Furukawa says that Nintendo started ramping up production even before the results of demo events and pre-order application were in, and is planning to manufacture a significant quantity to meet demand.
Related article: Switch 2’s cheaper, region-locked version is overwhelmingly popular among Japan’s 2.2 million pre-order applicants, survey suggests
