Sega’s forecast for the year is a mix of ups and downs as Sonic and Metaphor: ReFantazio triumph and Football Manager 25 gets cancelled

Sega Sammy Holdings have revised their consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. Groupwide net sales and net profit are expected to drop below previous targets, while operating and recurring profit are forecast to rise (as reported by GameBiz). 

Sega’s Entertainment Contents Business (which includes video games and movies) performed strongly in the first three quarters of the fiscal year, with operating profit rising by 116% compared to last year. New releases like Metaphor: ReFantazio and Sonic X Shadow Generations contributed to this, but sales of catalogue titles like Persona 5 Royal and Unicorn Overlord also played a significant role.  

On the other hand, performance of F2P games declined significantly, and sales are expected to fall below the previous forecast due to the cancellation of Football Manager 25. Sega also recorded a business restructuring loss associated with French developer Amplitude Studios SAS, which became independent again through a management buyout. 

Despite this, Sega expects operating profits and recurring profits to exceed the initial forecast. This is due in part to healthy repeat sales of full games, strong DLC sales, as well as the box-office success of the Sonic the Hedgehog 3 movie (which netted $460 million USD worldwide, eclipsing Sonic’s previous cinematic outings). In the fourth quarter, Sega launched Virtua Fighter R.E.V.O and will release Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii – two major games. In addition, sales of catalog game titles are expected to remain steady. 

Outside of this sector, Sega Sammy’s pachinko slot machines expect to see decreased sales and recurring profit, due to the company reducing the amount of machines they plan to sell. Casino machine-related profits in America and South Korea are predicted to increase. However, the rising costs of raw materials caused by the weak yen are expected to continue to have a negative impact on Sega’s amusement and toy businesses. 

The forecast revisions for the entire group are as follows: 

Net sales: 445 billion yen → 425 billion yen (down 4.5%) 
Operating profit: 45 billion yen → 46 billion yen (up 2.2%) 
Recurring profit: 48 billion yen → 51.5 billion yen (up 7.3%) 
Net profit: 39 billion yen → 37.5 billion yen (down 3.8%) 

Sega Sammy Holdings’ results for the first nine months (April to December 2024) of the fiscal year ending March 2025 were: 

Net Sales: 322.316 billion yen (down 8.1% year-on-year) 
Operating profit: 43.706 billion yen (down 20.8% year-on-year) 
Recurring profit: 49.41 billion yen (down 13.9% year-on-year) 
Net profit 41.756 billion yen (up 17.3% year-on-year)